Temperature record claim faces challenge as satellite data and El Niño analysis diverge

A group of atmospheric scientists from three institutions in the United States and Europe has formally requested a reanalysis of this year's global temperature data before any record is officially confirmed, citing a divergence between satellite measurements and surface station records.

The researchers' central argument concerns a dataset disagreement. The University of Alabama's lower-troposphere satellite dataset shows a temperature anomaly approximately 0.18 degrees Celsius smaller than the surface station records being used to support the record claim. At that margin, the scientists argued, the year would remain unusually warm but would not constitute a record by a statistically meaningful margin.

The group also submitted a formal request to both NOAA and the UK Met Office for a detailed breakdown of the El Niño contribution to this year's temperature anomaly. The concern raised was methodological: if El Niño accounts for a larger share of the anomaly than is currently being attributed to it, the underlying long-term warming trend would need to be characterized differently.

Two of the scientists involved published a reanalysis note the previous year disputing the 2023 temperature record on similar grounds. That analysis was contested by other researchers but was not formally refuted.

NASA, NOAA, and the UK Met Office, whose temperature records are the subject of the reanalysis request, had not formally responded at the time of publication. A NOAA spokesperson described the agency's methodology as robust and well-documented but did not address the specific satellite dataset divergence.